Assigning exploration risks

Dear fellow geologists,

As a starting exploration geologist I am having great problems when assigning geological risk factors and assessing exploration risk and uncertainty. I feel it will come with experience but for now I am having trouble with the nomenclature.
For instance what is uncertainty? I know it' follows from the unknowns, but does it directly relate to risk. In some area we will for instance know it is a high risk operation to find oil; certainty is high.
Are there any clear and comprehensible documents, websites or books that explain this concept of risk, uncertainty, probability, etc?

thanks,

Robbert

Attachments

Diagram showing the assignment of probability that an imperative geological factor is present.

Scale bar showing the assignment of confidence that is used when assessing Geological Chance Factors.

I agree with the admin, as always

I would like to expand on it a little bit in a more applicable way. When we assign risk, or rather chance (chance=1-risk) factors to certain areas, the provided spatial data has to be analysed for the occurrence of three important factors essential for a successful petroleum system (the play fairway). Chance factors (CF) - indeed defined by the scheme of Fig. 1 above - are given for the chance that a good reservoir is present, the chance a decent seal and trap is in place and the chance the area is charged sufficiently and timely.

The chance factor applied by us consists of the chance of a favourable outcome, taking into account the unknown unknowns and the known unknowns. In many cases this is based on geological knowhow and experience, rather than absolute correct statistics. We try to take this into account when using these chance factors, but this is often very difficult and rather philosophical.

Also, as producing fields or areas have no risk assigned to them they should all fall within the 1.0 chance factor area and are the only sure factor in an exploration area (and one could also debate on this, as they might have been lucky finds with low initial chance factors) . The problem arises when trying extrapolation of this (certain) chance factor away from such areas and this depends greatly on geological experience. It is not an absolute science!

just my 50 cents....

Robert83,
I think you will find a lot of useful info on my educational website on this subject: http://www.mhnederlof.nl/

It is sort of a free textbook with over 100 pages that covers resource estimation and prospect appraisal, and, of course risk estimation.
Good luck,
Rien Nederlof

Dr. M.H. Nederlof,

Your link was dead and was pointing to the .com domain. I updated it to the right location. Thanks fro sharing btw!

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